Michael Barone, who formerly worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart in the late 70's, has some much-needed advice for anyone thinking that the most recent polls show that President Obama already has the race won. Barone notes that many conservatives point out that "Mitt Romney is running ahead among independents in many polls but trails overall." As he further observes:
This can only happen if Democrats have a big lead in party identification, as they did in 2008. In the exit poll then, 39 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats and 32 percent as Republicans.
In contrast, exit polls showed an even break on party identification in 2004 and 2010. But many September and some earlier polls showed Democrats with an even bigger party identification lead than four years before.
That seems implausible. Party identification does change over time, as exit polls indicate. But it usually shifts gradually rather than suddenly, as current polls suggest.
There is evidence that since the Charlotte, N.C., convention, Democrats have become more motivated to vote and have narrowed the advantage in enthusiasm Republicans have had since 2010. In which case more Democrats may be passing through screening questions and getting polled.
And earlier in the piece, he takes note that because of widespread cell phone use, the response rate is only 9%. Please take some time and read Paul Rahe's extended take on Barone's piece here.
The race is far from over.
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