Regarding the flood of recent polls that have been coming out lately that suggest a blow out in favor of President Obama, Paul Mirengoff has some numbers that, to this point, have been overlooked:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 47 percent. That’s a point closer than a week ago and still within the margin of error.
The poll shows Romney leading among independents by 4 points. It also confirms that Obama faces an uphill battle with this group. Independents give Romney a 14-point edge on jobs and an 11-point edge on the economy. And more than 60 percent of independents disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy and spending. Romney ties Obama with this group on who is the stronger leader and leads by 9 points on who has the best ability to get things done.
In other words, the “fundamentals” strongly favor Romney among independents. When all is said and done, this edge could quite plausibly translate into a margin of more than 4 points with this cohort.
And in another post, Steve Hayward adds in some good analysis by Roger Beckett of the Ashbrook Center on poll results the Columbus Dispatch recently published:
The Columbus Dispatch released a poll showing Obama up by 9% in Ohio. I find this unbelievable. In the Dispatch poll, 860 respondents (52.6%) voted for Obama and 669 respondents (40.9%) voted for McCain. So this poll samples 11.7% more Obama voters than McCain voters. But in 2008, Obama won Ohio by only 4.6%. This poll heavily oversamples Obama voters, and there is no way that this poll is reflective of likely voters in Ohio.
There is a simple explanation for why it is much easier for pollsters to reach Obama supporters in the Buckeye state this year: there are over a million Obama-Phones floating around Ohio.
Again, the race is far from over.
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